Recently, many friends have been following David Webb to sort out the entry and exit figures of Hong Kong residents at the Immigration Department and observe the immigration and departure situation of Hong Kong people. Here I express it in the form of a graph. The data only counts Hong Kong residents entering and leaving at the airport, and the cumulative net emigration figures (for example, 1,206 people arrived in Hong Kong and 2,211 people left on April 2 yesterday, an increase of 1,005 people in total), starting from July 1, 2020 Zero points. Screenshot_2022-04-08_11_16_41 am Here we can see several phenomena.
First of all, after experiencing a wave of departures in the summer vacation of 2020, the number of inbound and outbound people from October to November 2020 was basically the same, and it began to rise sharply in mid-December, which Special Database shows that Hong Kong people have a certain seasonality in their entry and exit. There are significantly more summer and winter vacations, which may be related to parents taking their children out of Hong Kong during school holidays. Second, there is an increasing trend in the number of departures. About 50,000 people left Hong Kong in the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021, but nearly 100,000 people left in the second half of 2021 alone, doubling the rate. Taking into account seasonal effects, if we only look at the summer vacation, the net emigration in July and August 2020 was 27,445, and the net emigration in July and August 2021 was 46,492, still showing a significant growth rate. Third, by 2022, there will be a further growth rate.
Going back to February and March 2021, net emigration was 11,829; in February and March 2022, net emigration was 99,018. Such a substantial increase is believed to have a lot to do with the outbreak in Hong Kong. In the past, Hong Kong was safer than other places, and many people were willing to stay in Hong Kong; but when Hong Kong is no longer safer than other places, this reason for staying in Hong Kong no longer exists (and other reasons for them to leave Hong Kong become relatively important).